Kaletsky: Global financial crisis is over, upswing of the world economy has begun
Prague, 14 February 2014 – The global financial crisis is essentially over and we now stand at the beginning of a multi-year upswing. Such is the conclusion of a speech by Anatole Kaletsky, world-renowned economist, at the CFA Society Forecasting Dinner 2014. More than 200 representatives of leading financial institutions in the Czech Republic attended the gala evening. This year's 12th annual Forecasting Dinner was held in the premises of the Czech National Bank under the patronage of Governor Miroslav Singer.
Anatole Kaletsky is an award-winning journalist and financial economist who has written for The Economist or the Financial Times before joining Reuters. In his keynote speech, Mr. Kaletsky said: “Cyclical conditions in most of the world are clearly improving, led by a strong recovery in Japan, the U.S. and Britain. I believe that Europe has now stabilized and that an exogenous shock from China or other emerging markets is unlikely.” More importantly, he believes the balance of structural forces in the world economy is shifting, with many handicaps, such as de-leveraging and demographics, giving way to positive drivers of long-term growth. “One sign of this shift is the fact that the world's most important stock market index - the S&P 500 - broke out decisively from a 13-year bear market last March and has now sustained this breakout for a year,” Kaletsky added.
“Last November, the Czech National Bank used the exchange rate as an additional tool to ease monetary conditions and then expressed a commitment to intervene in the foreign exchange market to weaken the exchange rate and maintain the koruna near the level of 27 CZK/EUR if necessary,” Governor Miroslav Singer reminded the audience during his speech. He went on to evaluate the effects: “Our February forecast confirmed that keeping the exchange rate close to this level at least until the beginning of 2015 ensures that monetary conditions will be eased to the extent that is needed. Weakening the koruna has contributed significantly to warding off imminent deflation, and will accelerate the return of inflation to target. This goal will be achieved at the end of 2014, and will support a recovery of the economy and labor market.”
As usual, this year's Forecasting Dinner was preceded by a survey conducted by the agencies Donath Business & Media and Herzmann. The purpose of was to chart views of leading economists and financial experts on current topics in the Czech economy and their expectations associated with the newly formed coalition government. “The survey showed the professional public shares a cautious optimism for 2014 with Governor Singer. In the longer term, however, respondents see the future more skeptically – they expect rising taxes which will not help the economy, and do not believe effective anti-corruption measures will be taken”, Jan Herzmann summarized the findings.
CFA Society Czech Republic
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About the CFA Society Czech Republic
The CFA Society Czech Republic (www.czechcfa.cz) is an association of financial and investment professionals from the Czech Republic and Slovakia, founded in April 2002. It is one of 138 member societies of the CFA Institute (www.cfainstitute.org), and its mission is to promote the highest standards of ethics, education, professional excellence in the Czech and Slovak financial community. Currently, the association has over 130 members, mostly CFA charterholders, and nearly 900 CFA Program candidates from the Czech Republic and Slovakia who typically hold the following positions: portfolio manager, financial analyst, investment banking or corporate finance analyst, consultant, financial advisor, risk manager, and relationship manager.
During the 12 years the CFA Forecasting Dinner has built a reputation of one of the most prestigious economic events in the Czech Republic. Sponsors of the CFA Society Czech Republic are: EY, ČSOB Asset Management and ING Investment Management. The Forecasting Dinner’s partners for PR and Forecast Survey were: Donath Business & Media and Herzmann s.r.o. The event’s media partners were: Ekonom, ihned.cz, Hospodářské noviny and Fleet Sheet’s Final Word.